Sunday, November 22, 2009

Charlie Weis: A Reflection

Weis' tenure at Notre Dame is about to come to an end, and there's no arguing otherwise. 6-5 (6-6 with a loss at Stanford this week) is a disappointing season for a team with a favorable schedule, a great QB and playmakers on offense. I thought I'd do a reflection his 5 years at Notre Dame before it comes to an end.

The High Point

You could argue the high point of the Weis era was his first game, a blowout victory at Pittsburgh. The following week was a good win at Michigan as well. However, I think the high point was the final game of that season, a 7 point victory at Stanford that clinched a berth in a BCS bowl. Notre Dame went 9-2 that season and played a great USC team down to the wire. I never would have believed at that time that 4 years later we'd be looking at a 6 win season and Weis' removal. I really thought he'd be here a long time.

The Low Point

Again, you could argue for a couple different games here. Certainly losing to Navy for the first time in over 40 years sucked, but in all honesty that was a better Navy team that year. Losses to Navy and Connecticut this year were bad, but I'm going to go with the loss to Syracuse last season. Syracuse was an awful 8 loss team that had fired their coach (Greg Robinson) that week. The fact that they came into Notre Dame Stadium and won is the most embarrassing defeat I've ever been a part of.

Best Positions of Development

There's no question that this all resides on offense. Weis has coached one first round QB (Quinn), and perhaps a second (Clausen). Samardzija, Stovall and McKnight all became much better receivers under Weis than they were under Willingham, and Tate and Floyd have followed in their footsteps. Notre Dame also has a good run of TEs going, from Fasano to Carlson to Rudolph.

Worst Positions of Development

Notre Dame has never had a good group of linebackers as long as Weis has been here. The defensive line and secondary have been a mixed bag. Abiamiri, Laws, Landri, Zbikowski and Ndukwe all play in the NFL, but there have been quite a few players who haven't developed defensively. And much to Weis' chagrin as an offensive coach, the offensive line has ranged from pretty good his first two years, to dreadful the next two seasons, to maybe above-average now.

Biggest Surprise

When Weis was hired, there was a belief that Notre Dame couldn't recruit top-notch athletes. I would say the recruitment of Clausen, Tate and Floyd have proven that wrong. It was also hard to believe that the 2005 offense could be good, after seeing those very same players play so inconsistently for Willingham. I can remember Notre Dame beating Purdue badly in Weis' first year with a near-flawless offensive performance, and most of these players had played the year before and lost badly to Purdue.

Biggest Disappointment

When Weis was hired, there wasn't a lot of speed on defense, and he knew that to compete with the USC's of the world that had to change. I don't know that it has, although sometimes it's tough to tell if these defensive players have the talent but just don't show it, or if they really are as bad as they sometimes look. The close losses have also become a huge thorn in the side for this team. Last season Notre Dame lost a bunch of close games, and this game they haven't lost a game by more than 7 points. It's easy to say "if only this had changed, we'd be 9-2" but of course after awhile something stops being fluky and starts becoming a personality trait. This team can't close games, plain and simple.

Final Analysis

There's no question that the program is in better shape now than when Weis was hired. Willingham had two consecutive subpar recruiting seasons that set up the 3-9 2007 season. Weis has recruited much better, and whoever takes over is not taking over an empty cupboard. Even if Clausen and Tate leave for the NFL, former 5-star recruit Dayne Crist will take over at QB, Michael Floyd will become the top receiver and the talent is still there to score points. What this team really needs is a strong defensive coach to develop the players that are here (they may not be great, but it shouldn't be as bad as it is), and a coach that will instill a killer instinct. Blowing a bunch of late leads is the only thing holding this team back from 9 and 10 wins the past two seasons.

So while Weis has done some good things in improving the overall talent base on the roster, ultimately you're judged by wins and losses and that has been subpar. I'm willing to forgive the 3-9 2007 seasons, which was a perfect storm of a bad season, but the past two seasons should have been better. Willingham's tenure is long gone, and you can no longer kick that dog around. This team is all on Weis, and ultimately he's failed. There's no doubt the man is a strong offensive coach, and some NFL team will be getting a good offensive coordinator. But Notre Dame stretched to hire Weis in the first place after all of their top choices (Urban Meyer, specifically), and at the end of the day, it showed.

Weis got off 19-6 start, and it's hard to believe this is where we're at.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Gimme Fewell, gimme fire gimme...Ryan Fitzpatrick?

I used to think that Joey Harrington was the worst QB who somehow kept falling into starting jobs. First he was with Detroit, then Miami, then Atlanta, and he started for all of them at various times. He has now passed that torch to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who new Bills coach Perry Fewell has named his starting QB. This is, of course, insanity. Trent Edwards is no great shakes, but not even in an alternate universe is Fitzpatrick a better QB than Edwards. Fitzpatrick has started for the Rams back in 2005, the Bengals last year, and a couple games earlier this year for the Bills. I don't know how he does it, but he keeps falling into starting jobs.

And on the subject of completely worthless QBs now getting a chance to start...Bruce Gradkowski! I understand that JaMarcus Russell has been nothing short of awful this season, but let's be honest; does Gradkowski have any sort of future? I've posted before his stat line a year ago against Pittsburgh, and while it's fair to say he was playing for a horrible Browns team against the eventual Super Bowl champions, it's also fair to say that his stat line went beyond just your average everyday mediocrity. Russell has done nothing to actually earn the starting job, so I don't feel bad for him, and it may be in the Raiders' best interest to cut him in the offseason and move on. If they had a better replacement than Gradkowski, I'd be all for it. But I can't imagine him putting up much better numbers than Russell was.

Not to rub salt in this wound, but after the Raiders drafted Russell, Calvin Johnson came off the board, then Joe Thomas, then four picks later Adrian Peterson. Not to play the whole "Team X should have drafted this player" which everyone does in hindsight, but it's not like expecting good careers out of Johnson, Thomas and Peterson was out of line. That was actually a really strong draft featuring those players, plus Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis and Jon Beason later on in the first round.

Okay, I have another Russell anecdote; at the press conference last season where Al Davis announced the firing of Lane Kiffin, I remember him saying something like, "You didn't wanna draft JaMarcus Russell. He's a great quarterback." I'm paraphrasing, but Davis was bashing Kiffin for allegedly not wanting Russell. If that's true...I mean, how prescient does Kiffin look?

And one more; in Bill Simmons' "The Book of Basketball," he relates a story in which then-Magic GM Pat Williams raved about Penny Hardaway's great workout before the draft, that prompted them to trade Chris Webber for him. Simmons laughs this off, saying that Penny would have to be doing some crazy shit to justify passing on Webber (in hindsight; how do you pass on a possible frontcourt of Shaq and Webber? Who passes up a big man for a guard, all things being equal? Well the Magic did). This reminds me of the pre-draft bullshit before Russell was drafted, in which he also allegedly had a great workout. Remember Yi Jianlian posting up chairs? Or Kyle Boller throwing the ball through goalposts from his knees from about 40 yards out? It's a damn shame this game is actually played on a field, and not like a game of H-O-R-S-E.

And that should be all I have to say about Russell. He'll probably get cut in the off-season, some team will pick him up, then he'll eventually wash out. As much fun as it is to make fun of him, it really is a damn shame how bad his career has turned out. I can remember seeing him playing as a freshman in college (he played the 4th quarter against Iowa in that bowl game, and led LSU back to take a late lead that they eventually blew), and you could tell he had talent then. And he does have talent; I just don't think he cares. I've always thought he looked overweight, and his inability to complete a damn pass is embarrassing. You really have to not be trying to complete only 9-24 against the freaking Kansas City Chiefs. This doesn't happen a lot in the NFL, but Russell's career is just like an NBA player getting paid, and then coasting forever (think Tim Thomas). NFL contracts aren't guaranteed, which perenially motivates players, but Russell got such a big payday right away that he's set for life regardless of what happens. He really does have similar physical abilities to John Elway, but he's not motivated at all to reach that potential. All I really need to know about Russell is his hair, which was in a mohawk earlier this year and I assume still is. That tells me right there this is player that's not taking the job seriously. I never want my starting QB to have hair like that; get serious and act like a professional. You're not a corner or a receiver, you're the leader of the team. When they write the obituary on his career (as of now, he goes down with Ryan Leaf as one of the worst picks ever, no exaggeration), I hope they mention he got benched for Bruce Gradkowski. There is nothing more embarrassing than that.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

And Lovie Smith still has a job because...?

There's a lot that could be said about the Bears. In the past couple of weeks, they've been absolutely destroyed by the Bengals and Cardinals. Of their remaining schedule, only the Rams and Lions look like wins.

But the only thing I'm going to say is, this is a team that clearly overrated its talent coming into the season. This is a roster that needs to be blown up. On defense, it's a lot of the same players who were on the Super Bowl team of 2006 that are sucking it up today. Namely, Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye, Tommie Harris, Mark Anderson, Charles Tillman, and Nathan Vasher. I know Urlacher is out, but there's no excuses in this league. This defense is terrible nowadays, and it needs to be blown up. The pass rushers don't rush the passer anymore. Tommie Harris is invisible. Nathan Vasher doesn't seem to play anymore, and Tillman can't play anymore. Only Lance Briggs is a good player anymore. They're getting old, and it needs to be blown up.

The reason I say they've overrated their own talent, though, is because of the trade for Jay Cutler. I don't think they make that trade unless they think they're a QB away from the Super Bowl, and nowadays that's a laughable assertion. I don't blame them for trading for Cutler; after all, QBs like that just don't come available often. But if they had assessed their roster properly, they'd know it's the defense that needs help the most. I also think Matt Forte and Devin Hester are inferior playmakers, but that's not the big problem with this team.

What's wrong with the Packers?

The Packers lost at Tampa Bay today to fall to 4-4. They are essentially out of the NFC North race, having been swept by Minnesota. This is team that everyone seems to think has a bunch of talent; they at least shouldn't be losing to the Tampa Bays of the world. So what's the problem?

Where's the pass rush? In the off-season, the Packers hired Dom Capers to be their defensive coordinator and switched to a 3-4. They then moved Aaron Kampman to OLB to fit the 3-4. As a result, Kampman has become a thoroughly worthless player. He has 2.5 sacks this season, after getting 15.5, 12 and 9.5 over the past three seasons. Essentially, by hiring Capers they've made their pass rush worse, the exact opposite effect of what was supposed to happen. Defensive linemen like Cullen Jenkins, Ryan Pickett and Johnny Jolly are good players but they aren't pass rushers. Outside of Kampman, nobody on this roster can rush the passer and Kampman has been ruined in the 3-4.

Where's the protection? Aaron Rodgers was sacked 6 times today by a Tampa Bay defense that had recorded 11 sacks all season. Right tackle Allen Barbre gets my vote for worst offensive lineman of the season; they re-signed Mark Tauscher and started him today but he got hurt. Chad Clifton has been hurt, and they don't have a viable replacement behind him. As I read at football outsiders, if Jared Allen played against Green Bay every week he'd be in the Hall of Fame by December. Rodgers has now been sacked 37 times, and some of that certainly goes on him. He shows a terrible pocket presence at times, and holds the ball too long. But this team screwed up when the drafted B.J. Raji in the first round instead of Michael Oher. Oher could have stepped in immediately and played RT, with the ability to play LT as well. Instead they drafted a backup nose tackle.

Is this team really that talented? Big-play teams like the Packers tend to get overrated, because people see the big plays to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, but miss all the sacks Rodgers takes and the lack of pressure they generate on opposing QBs. And who are the teams the Packers have beaten this year, you might ask? The even-bigger-mess Bears, the Lions, Browns and Rams. They've lost to the Vikings twice, the Bengals and now the freaking Buccaneers. This team hasn't proven to be any better the worst teams in the league, and until they do it's time to stop giving them the benefit of the doubt. This team has some nice pieces (passing game, secondary, defensive tackles galore) but struggles with too many important aspects of the game (pass protection, pass rush). Until that gets fixed, they'll continue to beat the dregs of the league (except Tampa Bay) and nothing more.

Luckily for them...They do have Aaron Rodgers, and if he ever learns how to handle a pass rush, he'll be really good. He already is, really. His QB rating entering today was 110, and when he's in rhythm, few QBs throw as accurate a ball. Get this man a RT, add a pass rusher on defense and this team can be in business. Or move back to a 4-3 and move Kampman back to his comfort zone; they do, after all, already have a dominant pass rusher on the roster if they'd use him properly.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

"Clutch"

I would just like the record to show that, in my lifetime, the following athletes have all been labeled "unclutch" at one point or another.

*Peyton Manning
*Kevin Garnett
*Alex Rodriguez

What do they all have in common? They all now have been a part of championship teams. Geez, it's like they were really good players all along who didn't have anything "wrong with their mental makeup" or whatever psychobabble sports journalists like to throw out there. In other words, go to hell Skip Bayless.

The race for LVP

Some people like to follow the race for MVP. Is it Peyton Manning or Drew Brees? Maybe Favre should be thrown in the mix.

I, on the other hand, am fascinated by the race for LVP. As far as I can tell, it's down to Derek Anderson and JaMarcus Russell. Maybe this happens every year, but I don't recall two QBs in the same season having such awful years. Sure, there are some other bad players in the league. Allen Barbre is an awful RT for the Packers. C.C. Brown is a disaster at safety for the Giants. I'm not even convinced Orlando Pace can walk anymore, let alone play LT for the Bears.

But we all know these awards go to QBs. Hey, if they're the most valuable they should also be the least valuable. Let's size up the contenders.

Derek Anderson: 43% completion percentage, 2 TDs, 9 INTs, 4.4 yards per attempt, 36.2 rating

Comments: Now that's pretty damn awful. The fact that the Browns keep trotting this guy out each week seems laughable. I understand they don't want to pay Quinn his playing time incentives, but how about the 3rd stringer Brett Ratliff? I have a hard time believing he could do worse than this. I have a hard time believing an NFL QB could do this. That rating is worse than if he threw nothing but incompletions.

JaMarcus Russell: 48% completion percentage, 2 TDs, 9 INTs, 5.5 yards per attempt, 48.3 rating

Comments: I gotta say, at the beginning of the year I thought Russell was going to run away with this award. I still think by the end of the year he's going to have a historically bad season considering the attempts he'll get, and frankly I'm rooting for it. But by some miracle, he has been better than Anderson this year. If the Browns had stayed with Quinn and accepted his 62 rating, Russell would have this award locked up. But it's like the Browns saw the Raiders beating them in some act of futility, and just couldn't allow that to happen. Kinda like how on draft day the Raiders wasted a top-10 pick on Heyward-Bey, but the Browns somehow outdid them by trading down a couple times and drafting a center.

In these guy's defense, I will say their receivers are awful. The Browns traded away their top two receivers and replaced them with basically nothing. The Raiders have surrounded Russell with two rookie receivers who on one play Sunday tripped over each other. But with that said, these are some awful seasons. And as bad as Russell's been, he's actually picked up his play just a tad the past couple of weeks, while Anderson has dropped his level of play considerably since his first start against Cincinnati. In an upset, Derek Anderson truly is the league's LVP.

This is too good

Over at espn.com they have an article about Roy Williams being unhappy with the passes being thrown his way.


"He gets the ball thrown correctly his way," Williams said of Austin. "I'm stretching and falling and doing everything. Everybody [else] who's been here's balls are there. Our footballs [from Romo to Williams] are everywhere right now."

You see, it's not Roy Williams' fault that Roy Williams sucks. It's Tony Romo's fault. Sure, he throws accurate passes to Miles Austin, Jason Witten and Patrick Crayton, but not to Williams. How can I put this gently...you don't get accurate passes thrown your way because your worthless ass doesn't get open. I love how Roy can see everyone but him getting good passes thrown their way, and he comes to the conclusion that it's Romo's fault. Maybe there's somethign wrong with you. Check that... there is something with you; you're worthless, go away.

This quote is the icing on the cake, though.

"I'm the No. 1 receiver. But things are just going No. 2's way."

Hmm. Nope I'm pretty sure you're not. Miles Austin is wiping the floor with your worthless ass right now. Do I even need to mention that Miles Austin does this with about half of the natural talent that Roy Williams has?

Checking the Cowboy's stats on the season, Austin, Witten and Crayton all have more receptions than Williams this year. Tashard Choice, the 3rd string RB, has one less reception than Williams. But this is all Romo's fault. Roy is a #1 receiver who just doesn't get good passes thrown his way. What a flipping joke.

Again, I don't know how to put this gently...Roy Williams is an awful receiver who needs to be released. His presence screws everything else up for Dallas. The amount of money and draft picks they put into him force them to play him every week and every down, even though he has nowhere near earned that playing time. Jerry Jones needs to realize what an awful trade that was and release this guy immediately. It's obvious he's never going to get better, because in his mind he's already a superstar. He's a sunk cost that needs to be released. He just gets in the way of productive players seeing the field and getting balls thrown their way. Dallas' best offense is with Austin and Crayton on the outside, and utilizing their TEs (Witten and Bennett) and RBs (Barber, Jones, Choice). Those guys make plays; Williams doesn't.