Sunday, September 27, 2009

Here's a strategy I hate

I call it the prevent offense. The 49ers took over with just under 2 minutes left in the game, and a first down away from basically icing the game. The Vikings had all 3 of their timeouts, so they could stop the clock after 3 consecutive plays and get the ball back with about 1:30 remaining. 1:30 is plenty of time for an NFL team to drive down the field and get itself in position to score a TD. The 49ers needed a first down, otherwise the Vikings were going to have a chance.

The 49ers could either run 3 times, hope to get a first down on of them but if not at least force Minnesota to use all of its timeouts. Or they could put the ball in the air once and try to get the first down that way. Consider that Glen Coffee finished the game with 25 carries for 54 yards. In other words, they had no success running the ball today. Running the ball right into the middle of the line is playing into Minnesota's strength. So getting a first down by running was highly unlikely.

They chose to simply run the ball into the line three times and punt. Of course Minnesota stuffed all three runs, because that's what they do, not to mention it's horribly predictable. I hated this strategy at the time, and when you see how the game finished it looks even worse. The 49ers didn't once really try to convert that first down. They were more worried about forcing Minnesota to use its timeouts. But since Minnesota possessed all three, and not just one or two, they could stop the clock after each run and get the ball back with 1:30, enough time for a team to get down the field even without timeouts.

Had the 49ers passed the ball on 3rd down, which I think would have been the correct strategy, there's a good chance it wouldn't have worked and the pass would have fallen incomplete. The 49ers aren't a strong passing team, so it's not playing to their strengths. However, they had success throwing to Vernon Davis. And since Minnesota was playing to stop the run, they might have been able to get someone open and pick up that ever-important first down.

I think Mike Singletary coached scared at this moment. I think he was afraid to stop the clock for Minnesota, and if they had done that that strategy would have been criticized. "Mike, why did you throw the ball on 3rd down when you could have run and forced Minnesota to use their last timeout?" It's a matter of playing to win or playing scared. Running into the middle of the line three times when it's shown zero success all day is playing scared. That first down was very important, and the 49ers didn't even try to get it. Throwing the ball past the first down marker would have been playing to win. It might not have worked; Charlie Weis employed this strategy two weeks ago and it didn't work against Michigan, and he had to answer questions about it.

But let me ask this; can you really sleep at night after losing a game like that and knowing you didn't do everything in your power to win? If you leave it all on the field and lose, hey it happens. But if you elect to not even try to put Minnesota away, and then they complete a miracle pass to win, can you really feel good about that? I've always felt that if you do everything you can and still lose, you can live with that. But I hate losing games in which a killer instinct wasn't employed (i.e. throwing the ball past the first down marker to pick up an important first down) and you just kind of hope the other team doesn't make any plays to win.

I've seen Brad Childress twice punt the ball with under 2 minutes to go facing a 4th and short from inside the 50 yard line. I thought that was really weak as well, although each time the Vikings held on to win. But just because a strategy works doesn't mean it's the right strategy. Each time the only way the other team could win was by getting the ball back. A first down prevents that, while a punt facilitates that. So of course Childress elected to voluntarily give the other team the ball. This is essentially what Singletary did today. You can either try to get a first down and win the game on your own, or you can hand the other team the ball and hope they don't succeed. Playing scared works sometimes, but it's not optimal. Especially when the strategy you do employ (running the ball into the middle three times) has zero chance of success.

But hey; at least the Vikings didn't have any timeouts at the end. It really made a difference.

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