Sunday, March 28, 2010

At what point do you just give up?

So I was thinking about the Raiders' draft prospects...most people seem to think they'll draft an offensive tackle, and that would make sense since Khalif Barnes is slated to start at RT and he's not exactly a good option. However, I'm not so sure that will be the pick, and I'm not so sure that it should be.

For one thing, what about a defensive end? The Raiders traded for Kamerion Wimbley, but he'll be playing OLB (apparently the Raiders don't understand there's a difference between a 3-4 OLB and a 4-3 OLB, but whatever) and Matt Shaughnessy is slated to start at DE along with Richard Seymour. Is Matt Shaughnessy really so good that he couldn't be upgraded? They also have Trevor Scott, who they've moved around from DE to OLB (don't ask), but again, is he so good he couldn't be upgraded? I don't think so. When the Raiders' pick comes up, they'll probably have their choice of every DE in the draft, and I definitely think the Raiders need to improve their pass rush. However, they probably do believe internally that Shaughnessy, Scott and Wimbley will provide some pass rush along with Seymour.

So then I thought...why not Dez Bryant? Bryant allegedly has character issues, although I think those are overblown, and besides the Raiders don't care about character issues. Bryant is probably one of the 5 most talented players in this draft, so he would represent good value at #8, plus he'd fill a need for the Raiders (does anyone want to argue the Raiders receivers are a strength). But the answer to why they wouldn't draft Bryant is, of course obvious; they drafted a wide receiver with the #7 pick last year, and they don't want to do that two years in a row (that's a lot of money to invest in one position).

And then I thought...why not Jimmy Clausen? I'm not saying this as a Notre Dame fan, but rather from the standpoint that the Raiders' QBs are extremely weak and maybe the worst collection of QBs in the NFL (although Mike Holmgren's done a helluva job of competing for that title in Cleveland). So how come nobody thinks the Raiders should draft a QB #8 overall, and how come they seemingly aren't even considering it? Well, again, the answer is obvious; they just drafted a QB #1 overall three years ago and probably have no interest in enduring that debacle again.

So this brings me to my original question...at what point do you just give up on a player? For instance, I think it would be incredibly stupid for the Raiders to pass on Dez Bryant simply because of the presence of Darrius Heyward-Bey. See, another problem the Raiders have is that, because they drafted Heyward-Bey so high and he's only been around a year, they have to act as if he'll be a large part of their offense. But if they were to be completely honest about it, and were to do what is truly right for the franchise, they would demote Heyward-Bey to the bottom of the depth chart and not let his presence at all affect how they approach the draft. As it is, they've invested a lot of money and a high draft pick in the guy, and as a result, they have to play him at least one more year to try and recoup their investment.

This is why you can't make these type of mistakes in the top-10. Because of the investment costs, you can't draft a terrible player in the top-10 and get rid of him immediately like you can, say, a 7th round pick. And the ego involved also gets in the way; who wants to admit they made such a large mistake? There's also the fact that the top-10 pick, while playing terribly initially, probably has a substantial amount of physical talent that makes you not want to give up on him immediately.

And so what happens is one mistake prompts numerous others. You move ahead as if you've filled a hole, even though you haven't, and pass on free agents and draft picks who really could help your team. After a couple years you finally have to admit you made a mistake, and by virtue of not addressing that position because of that player's presence, you end up 3-4 years behind where your started.

So what should teams do? Teams should be completely honest with themselves over young players who look like busts. Some guys get off to slow starts, but eventually develop into good players, and nobody wants to give up on that player too early. However, I think a team that is completely honest with itself can differentiate between a guy off to a slow start but with real potential, and a guy that is a complete bust.

Just look at the Minnesota Vikings to see the difference. Troy Williamson was a complete bust, and to anybody completely honest with themselves (not me, unfortunately, as I lied to myself like everyone else did), you could see that. He had questionable hands, could not track the ball in the air, and displayed just overall questionable football skills. He was a track guy playing football, and that was obvious to anybody who wanted to admit it. On the other hand, Sidney Rice always looked like a football player. I can remember watching him as a rookie in the preseason, and seeing him display the skills that all natural receivers display; good hands, the ability to catch the ball at its highest point, and getting two feet in on the boundary. Rice's career got off to a slow start (his 2nd year was especially a disappointment), but it was always obvious he could be a good football player.

So let's go back to the Raiders...at what point do they just give up on Heyward-Bey and Russell? It's my opinion that they should give up on both players immediately, and move forward as if neither player will contribute anything next season. Heyward-Bey is just like Williamson (those guys aren't worth wasting time on, trust me), and Russell refuses to commit himself to being a good NFL player. The longer that the Raiders pretend that these guys will eventually contribute positively, the further behind they put their franchise, and in the process they pass on talented players who actually could help them.

By the same token, they should not give up on Darren McFadden yet, even though he also looks like a top-10 bust at ths point. McFadden actually looks like a football player out there, and injuries have slowed him down more than anything. He's worth waiting on, although there's no guarantee he'll come around. But at least he looks like a football player, while Heyward-Bey belongs in track and Russell in a hot dog eating contest.

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One other thing I just wanted to mention; how funny is it that the Raiders reached for a speed guy (Heyward-Bey) in 2009, but in 2008 did not reach for another speed guy (Chris Johnson) who actually turned out to be the best RB in the NFL? I always think of that whenever the Raiders are stereotyped as only caring about speed. But...then how come they didn't draft Chris Johnson, one of the fastest players to ever run at the Combine? Chris Johnson, at the time, would have been a tremendous reach, but no more than Heyward-Bey was.

The 2008 draft was strong at RB (Jonathan Stewart, Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Chris Johnson), and the Raiders end up with the worst one so far. The 2009 draft was strong at WR (Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks) and the Raiders end up with the worst one. Either they suck at drafting or they suck at developing players, because they keep drafting the first player from a deep position and end up with little to show for it.

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