Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Random musings a day before the NFL season kicks off

* The Baltimore Ravens have the makings of a pretty good team, but I am very worried about their cornerback situation. They will be starting Fabian Washington and Chris Carr (two failed Raiders, to put that in perspective) on Monday night, with newly acquired Josh Wilson as the 3rd corner. This is a team that counts Lardarius Webb as its best corner, so it's not a great situation even when they're healthy. And right now they're not, with Webb injured and Ed Reed seemingly on the permanent disabled list. If they can win and field a solid defense with that corner situation, I would be very impressed.

* The talent level of the San Diego Chargers has quietly regressed over the past couple of seasons, to the point that if you eliminated Philip Rivers from the equation, I'm not sure there's much difference between them and their division rivals. They'll be starting Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee at receiver, and really have no impact on defense anymore. Shawne Merriman has declined badly, Jamal Williams is no longer there clogging the middle (he was a great nose tackle, really underrated), the linebackers seem average and I don't know what to make of their offensive line anymore. I'd be willing to bet that Marcus McNeill is missed more than Vincent Jackson; Norv can scheme around a missing receiver, but it's hard to scheme around a blindside protector who can't protect. I would still put the Chargers ahead of the rest of the AFC West because of Rivers, but they aren't so frightening anymore. I'm afraid their window of opportunity is very close to shut.

* When the Redskins acquired Donovan McNabb, I said that automatically made them a playoff contender. Uhh, I'd like to retract that statement. McNabb has gotten by before with substandard receivers, but I was not counting on the exhumed corpse of Joey Galloway to be starting for this team. It's not a stretch to say the Redskins' two best receivers are their tight ends, Chris Cooley and Fred Davis, with Clinton Portis probably next in line. I'm also skeptical of their move to a 3-4 defense. Players like Andre Carter and Albert Haynesworth really don't fit at all in a 3-4, but can be really good in a 4-3. I honestly have no idea why the Redskins are making such a switch; I would also wonder how a small inside linebacker like London Fletcher will fit into a 3-4. Brian Orakpo is the only player who seamlessly fits into a 3-4, and he was just fine last year playing in a 4-3.

* The Panthers and Giants finished with the same record last season, the Panthers went into New York and destroyed the Giants last season...so naturally, the Giants are the biggest favorites of the week according to Vegas. Okay I get it, the Giants are opening a new stadium, and they have a lot more fans than the Panthers so the action is going to be on them. But honestly, I think the Panthers are a nice sleeper (I hate that term; to me, the Rams were a sleeper in that last year in that they never woke up) team, with three explosive offensive playmakers, a more stable QB than last year (Matt Moore isn't great, but he shouldn't submarine their season like Delhomme did) and an interesting defensive line. The Panthers' defensive line had a very good pre-season, which doesn't mean much but they may have some intriguing young players there. One to watch for is 2nd year end Everette Brown, a 2nd round pick last year who will be counted on to be the team's best pass rusher. I think he's up to the challenge.

* The Denver Broncos, through various trades, have had 8 first and second round picks in the past two drafts. Here is what they've ended up with:

RB Knowshon Moreno, OLB Robert Ayers, CB Alphonso Smith (already traded), S Darcel McBath, TE Richard Quinn, WR Demaryius Thomas, QB Tim Tebow, G Zane Beadles.

Are you scared yet? You almost have to try to screw things up this badly. First and second round picks are premium picks, where you get starters and impact players. It's early, but I'd be shocked if more than three of these guys became long-term starters for Denver.

The Alphonso Smith pick is the best one. The Broncos, as a result of the Cutler trade, had the Bears' first round pick in 2010. They traded that pick for a 2nd rounder in 2009, which they used on Smith. Smith was just recently traded to Detroit for a backup TE named Dan Gronkowski. The Bears' first round pick went to Seattle, became the 14th pick and became S Earl Thomas. The flow chart for that pick went like this:

1st rounder in 2010 (Earl Thomas) ---- 2nd rounder in 2009 (Alphonso Smith) ---- 7th rounder in 2009 (Dan Gronkowski)

I continue to say, if you told me Josh McDaniels was a plant of the Raiders, Chiefs or Chargers, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest. What a disgrace. Never before has a first round pick devalued so quickly.

* The Jets will continue their victory parade on Monday night....wait, what? They didn't win the Super Bowl last year? Well it sure seems like they did. I've never seen a 9-7 team that needed the Colts to roll over for them in order to make the playoffs celebrate themselves so vociferously. This team has all the makings of a crash-and-burn season. You know how the story goes; team gets off to slow start, QB is struggling, fans turn on the team, players turn on each other, season goes south, team finishes 6-10. And quite frankly, people are putting a little too much faith into Mark Sanchez. I like the guy, I think he can be good, but he was piss-poor for most of last season. Let's see it before we start proclaiming him the Sanchize.

* Almost everyone is picking the Packers to represent the NFC, and I'm left scratching my head wondering why. I mean sure, the Packers have a good team that went 11-5 last year. But they have some serious question marks as well. First, this team only has one legitimate pass rusher in Clay Matthews. Someone needs to step up and help him. And secondly, that corner situation looks awful shaky. Woodson can still play, but Al Harris is hurt and probably done as an effective corner in this league, leaving Tramon Williams to start and a rookie named Sam Shields playing the nickel. Sam Shields, by the way, was a receiver at Miami but apparently has been quite impressive. Either way, I really feel like you can move the ball on this team. This team feasted on bad QBs last season, but when they played good ones they got torched. Favre, Roethlisberger, Warner...they all had huge days against Green Bay, and I don't see why that would change this year. Unless they have an impact pass rusher that I don't know about besides Matthews.

Everyone picking Green Bay reminds me of a quote from somebody smart; when everybody is thinking the same, nobody is truly thinking.

* Finally, I haven't said anything about Notre Dame football in awhile, and that's mainly because I didn't know what to say coming into the season. This is a talented, underachieving roster with a coaching staff that led Cincinnati to an undefeated regular season coming in. I don't know what to make of that yet. Early returns are positive, as the defense was much better this past week, the discipline was noticeably better and Notre Dame was able to hold off a short rally by Purdue and hold their 4th quarter lead, something they struggled mightily with last season. So I'm encouraged heading into the Michigan game this week. But I'm not going to crown their ass (copyright, Denny Green) just yet.

As Lou Holtz once said (covered in spittle, no doubt); when we're good, I won't have to tell you.

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